Dr Tim Hames is a highly effective strategic thinker and public speaker advising on areas of domestic and geopolitical risk at the confluence of business and politics. He is the author of Trump II: Why He Won. What It Means For The World (January 2025) and War or Peace? The United States and China, 2026-2049 (October 2026).
Tim speaks on key topics including ‘The Great Fragmentation: Global Politics 2016-2026, 2026-2031’, UK politics, US politics, US-China and China
Tim has written speeches for politicians, private individuals and corporate leaders either for their annual meetings or other public appearances.
Tim is a co-founder of Acuti Associates. This is an advisory firm specialising in domestic and geopolitical risks.
From about 1990/1991 to 2015/2016, the international order was relatively stable and, for business, comparatively benign. This age – dubbed ‘The Great Moderation’ – had three key features. First, the United States was the sole and virtually unchallenged economic, political, military, technological and cultural superpower and was content to play that role. Second, inflation had been becalmed in the developed world and at the behest of stronger central banks. Third, the onward march of globalisation appeared to be unstoppable.
As of 2015/2016, all of this has changed. The Great Moderation is dead. What Tim has christened ‘The Great Fragmentation’ has replaced it. Why has this happened? What will occur next? How should business, especially, react to it?
Between January 2016 and December 2026, the UK is likely to have seen seven different Prime Ministers, nine separate Chancellors of the Exchequer and at least ten Secretaries of State for Business. This is unprecedented change; it hints at a political system in deep crisis. We also appear to have moved from a basically two party system (sometimes two and a half) to what resembles a six/seven party era (Labour, Conservative, Lib Dem, Reform UK, Green Party and SNP/Plaid Cymru).
Tim can address why this is happening, what is likely to occur next, and how business, in particular, should respond.
The restoration of Donald Trump to the White House in January 2025 has already proved an absolutely seismic event not only within the United States itself, but even more forcefully across the wider world. As the author of Trump II: Why He Won. What It Means For The World (January 2025), Tim is uniquiely placed to explain the Trump pheneoma, set out what s likely to happen in his remaining time in office, and assess how much Trumpism will influence US and global politics.
There is no more important economic and political relationship in the world than that between the US and China. This is only destined to become more true as this decade develop. Yet in the past five years, the two nations have become increasingly antagonistic on issues ranging from access to key technologies to the status of Taiwan. The implications of this for the international business sector (in particular) are enormous. What is driving this divide? Where will it go next? What will be the wider impact? Can the risk of competition between the two escalating into actual conflict be contained?
As the author of War or Peace? The United States and China, 2026-2049 (October 2026), Tim can provide answers to these questions.
Much of the outside coverage of China (even in elite publications) is unduly simplistic. President Xi Jinping is portrayed as the reincarnation of Chairman Mao. The leading figures of the Standing Committee of the Politburo are dismissed as inconsequential Yes Men. The country as a whole is deemed to be a largely closed society. None of this is accurate. It is critical to understand what modern China is, how it works, and want it wants. It is vital to appreciate why its ambitions have changed over the past decade and what those aspirations will be in the ten years and more to come.
